Trends and decomposition of changes in mortality in low- and middle-income countries, 1950-2019

Authors:

Marcia C. Castro^1,§

Cassio M. Turra^2,§

Jamie Ponmattam^{^1}

Abstract

From 1950 to 2019, all countries experienced an increase in life expectancy at birth. However, the magnitude and pace of change varied. Lower-income countries experienced relatively larger increases, leading to a convergence process. Nevertheless, disparities remained pronounced in comparison to wealthier countries. In accordance with the health transition model, countries typically observe a decline in mortality rates by first achieving greater gains in young and adult ages. In this study, we build on the existing literature on health transition to demonstrate that by 2019, 55% of the 118 low- and middle-income countries analyzed had reached a life expectancy at birth of at least 70 years. Notably, only two countries from sub-Saharan Africa met this threshold. Additionally, 54% of the countries demonstrated advancement to a phase of "slowing the aging process." Lastly, 49% of the countries reached a stage where contributions to the gains in life expectancy at birth from ages 65 years or more were greater than those from ages 30-60. The results demonstrate an ongoing process of divergence-convergence between high- and low-income countries and within middle- and low-income groups.

Authors’ affiliations

1 Department of Global Health and Population, Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA 02115, USA

2 Demography Department, Cedeplar, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, MG 31270-901, Brazil

§ Contributed equally